2021 Big Game Hunting Forecast

FOR THE COURIER

HELENA – Are you ready for hunting season? FWP can help. In addition to the following hunting forecast, FWP provides online information about hunting access, including our popular Block Management Program. Through the program, we coordinate with landowners to provide hunting access to more than 7 million acres of private land.

The interactive Hunt Planner map allows users to look at information for various species, including hunting districts and regulations. The hunt planner interactive map is a great way to access our block management information, so if you’re planning a hunt in a certain area, you can see if there are Block Management Areas available to expand your opportunity.

And, as always, you can contact our helpful staff at any of our regional offices around the state. They’re happy to help and can often get you pointed in the right direction with just a few simple tips.

Montana has some of the longest hunting seasons in the West, healthy herds of game and access to millions of acres of public land. However, hunters must be mindful of fire danger and of private landowners who are facing grass shortages, poor crop production and fatigue from monitoring for fire. Hunter harvest helps to reduce wildlife densities on a stressed landscape, and perhaps to help lessen winter depredation on haystacks or winter range. 

To have the best possible experience, hunters should plan ahead, check for any fire or access restrictions, and have a backup plan. Please stay on designated roadways and paths, and do not park your vehicle in tall grass. Remember to pack some basic equipment for fire suppression.

To check for possible Block Management closures or restrictions, hunters can visit fwp.mt.gov. The Hunt Planner map also will list any restrictions. To check for fire restrictions, visit the Restrictions and Closures page on the FWP website. Montana also has a new dashboard for comprehensive fire information at mtfireinfo.org.

Here are a few things hunters can do to show respect for private landowners during this dry season:

avoid vehicle use in areas with dry grass in the median

use caution when parking in areas with dry vegetation

report smoke or any signs of fire to local officials

carry a fire extinguisher or water to quickly snuff any potential fires.

Destination: NORTH-CENTRAL MONTANA

While mild conditions last winter may have helped bolster big game populations in some parts of north-central Montana, drought and wildfires over the summer will undoubtably negatively impact hunters in other areas. As is always the case, hunters that do their homework to locate areas of good habitat and game numbers prior to the season and who secure access will have the best chance for a successful hunt.

The overall outlook for elk in Region 4 is generally good. In the Castle and Little Belt Mountains near White Sulphur Springs, biologist Jay Kolbe reported good calf production and recruitment, and also saw a record number of yearling bulls last winter, which should translate to good numbers of branch-antlered bulls this fall for those able to gain access. Near Great Falls, biologist Jake Doggett reports that elk numbers are above average in the Highwood Mountains and Devils Kitchen area, and slightly below average in a few areas of the Little Belts. Along the southern Rocky Mountain Front and Sun River, elk numbers remain stable and within long-term objectives. Shoulder seasons in the Birdtail Hills and areas of the front are in place to address elk numbers which are above objective numbers in those areas. Along the northern Rocky Mountain Front, elk numbers remain above long-term average, with bull-to-cow ratios at or near average. In the Sweetgrass Hills, elk are well over objective, giving hunters opportunity to harvest antlerless elk, although access can be difficult. Sonja Anderson, FWP biologist In Lewistown, said that elk in her hunting districts are all significantly over long-term average, but private land access is also very difficult, while severe drought is concentrating elk in agricultural areas with green vegetation. In the Missouri River Breaks, hunters should focus on areas near the river, or look for other water sources, as elk are keying on those areas as well.

Mule deer numbers show a mixed bag across the region, still recovering from recent lows near White Sulphur Springs, but increasing overall as a result of mild winter weather. Deer numbers are currently near the long-term averages along much of the northern and southern Rocky Mountain Front, while mule deer in agricultural grounds near Great Falls are doing well, but in the mountainous areas their populations are still down. Brent Lonner, FWP biologist for the southern Rocky Mountain Front, reports that ratios of both fawns-to-adults as well as bucks-to-does place deer very close to long-term averages in the districts he manages west of Great Falls. The eastern areas of Region 4 have pockets of both higher and lower than average deer numbers, and again Anderson notes that any areas with green vegetation are likely to have high numbers of deer.

White-tailed deer remain a bright spot in the region and offer ample opportunities to harvest bucks as well as antlerless deer to put some excellent meat into the freezer. Highest whitetail numbers are normally seen in private land agricultural and riparian ground, and hunters who obtain access to these areas can expect to see lots of deer this fall.

Pronghorn populations across the region also are mixed, with good fawn production and buck ratios reported near White Sulphur Springs, and lower overall numbers closer to Great Falls, where populations are still are recovering from severe winters in 2017 and 2018. Near Lewistown, pronghorn numbers remain below average and are still struggling to recover from severe winters a few years ago. Anderson believes that the drought conditions of the summer will have a significant impact on fawn survival, slowing population recovery even further. According to biologist Ryan Rauscher, pronghorn numbers in the Golden Triangle region north of Great Falls are mixed. Numbers are well below long-term averages near the Sweetgrass Hills, but in the heart of the Triangle their numbers have experienced a slow but steady increase from the low numbers of 2017, and license numbers have been increased as a reflection of those conditions.

Hunters will be glad to hear that no significant outbreaks of epizootic hemorrhagic disease (EHD) have been reported as of late August. But the large wildfires experienced over the summer in Region 4 may significantly impact the distribution of game animals in and near areas that have burned, so hunters should put in some time scouting to be sure conditions have not changed in their favorite hunting areas. Also, the hot weather and severe drought conditions this summer may translate into poorer survival for big game animals in the upcoming winter, and likely will result in poorer production and recruitment to populations next year. Biologists recommend that hunters do their homework, and focus on areas where deer, elk, and pronghorn numbers are already above long-term averages, taking advantage of extra licenses where they are available.

Big game hunters rely on hard work, skill, luck, and access to good habitat to be successful year after year. While they may not be able to control their luck, their hard work and perseverance, coupled with good shooting and hunting skills, physical fitness and putting in the time and effort to secure access to good habitat and hunting areas before hunting season all pay off with success notching tags later in the fall.

Destination: SOUTH-CENTRAL MONTANA 

Historically dry, warm weather and fire danger in south central Montana could play a role in hunter access as well as wildlife numbers and distribution during the 2021 hunting seasons.

While property owners are not yet saying that they will close their borders because of fire danger, hunters are encouraged to check with landowners before entering their property and take extra fire precautions when they head to the woods and fields this fall. Access to some traditionally open private land may be restricted until cooler temperatures and significant moisture arrive.

Particularly during the early archery and upland bird seasons, hunters should be prepared to walk long distances where landowners limit motorized travel on private property.

Elk populations throughout south central Montana remain robust and are either stable or growing. However, most of the elk are on private property where hunter access is an issue.

Mule deer numbers remain below the long-term average in all corners of south-central Montana. Though last winter’s weather did not harm populations, the herds still are trying to recover from the previous three severe winters. Buck-doe ratios are running behind average, and mule deer buck harvest has been 30 percent to 60 percent below average for the past couple of seasons. Mule deer hunters should expect significantly reduced opportunities to harvest an animal in south-central Montana this fall.

White-tailed deer numbers should be as good or better than last year in the northern and western districts of south-central Montana, but near a 20-year low along the Beartooth face and Clarks Fork River. East of Roundup, numbers remain depressed after an EHD disease outbreak a year ago. But, along he Musselshell River west of Lavina and in the Two Dot-Martinsdale area, white-tailed deer numbers at are near record highs. Along the Yellowstone and Boulder rivers, white-tailed deer numbers remain strong and hunters should expect to encounter animals in quantities similar to the past three or four years.

South of the Yellowstone River in south-central Montana, pronghorn numbers going into the 2021 season are at a 30-year low. West of Columbus and Ryegate, numbers also are lower than in previous years. As a result, fewer licenses will be issued for those districts this fall. Herds north of the Musselshell River suffered poor fawn recruitment this spring and remain below objective numbers. Northwest of Harlowton and districts north of the Yellowstone River and east of Columbus, pronghorn numbers are near objective. Hunters are likely to find pronghorn congregating near water in all areas of south-central Montana.

Destination: NORTHEAST MONTANA

Elk surveys in the Missouri River Breaks in 2020 (the last year they were surveyed) were 15 percent below the long-term average. The 2021 elk survey in the Bears Paw area was above the 2018 survey and over twice the 15-year average. Most elk hunting opportunities are allocated through limited permit or B-license drawing in the region, with the exception of HD 690, where general licenses are valid for antlerless elk. A few districts where elk habitat and numbers are very low and difficult to find offer either-sex harvest on a general license. Please see the current hunting regulations to learn more.

Mule deer populations are high across the region but vary depending on the hunting district. Overall, numbers seen during spring surveys showed region-wide population at 84 percent above long-term average.

The winter of 2020-2021 was generally mild and very favorable for wintering deer, and no significant mortality events were reported in the region for mule deer. In addition, the favorable winter, combined with already high deer numbers observed the last few years, has led to the well above-average numbers.

Antlerless mule deer B-licenses remain at high levels, and there may be surplus tags still available in some districts. Please visit fwp.mt.gov for the current information on surplus licenses.

White-tailed deer densities continue to remain stable across the region. The 2021 survey showed white-tailed deer density averages of 9.8 deer per square mile across the deer trend areas, which is just below the long-term average of 10.7 deer per square mile.

A single-region antlerless whitetail B-license will again be available for over-the-counter purchase, with a limit of one per hunter. Additionally, some whitetail B-licenses may be available in surplus.

In general, pronghorn populations have been slowly increasing the past 10 years across the region from historic lows in 2011. While some survey areas have observed increased numbers and are at or above their long-term averages, there are still a few areas where pronghorn are still below their long-term average. Moderate numbers of pronghorn licenses were distributed through the drawing system and those who have drawn licenses should have a good opportunity to harvest a pronghorn.

Destination: SOUTHEAST MONTANA 

Southeast Montana is typically dry and hot heading into fall, but this year conditions are especially dire. All of Montana is experiencing extreme drought, and fire danger is incredibly high.

The Missouri Breaks (HD 700) and Custer Forest Elk Management Unit (HDs 702, 704, 705) remain the two “core” elk populations in southeast Montana. Outside of these areas, elk numbers are generally low, but numbers have been increasing at a moderate rate, accompanied by a gradual expansion into previously unoccupied habitat. 

FWP biologists typically observe strong calf recruitment and an excellent composition of bulls.

Branch-antlered bull hunting is by permit only in HDs 700, 702, 704, 705 and the far-western portion of 701. But even if you didn’t draw a special permit this year, Region 7 offers opportunities to hunt elk with a general license. The general elk license is valid for spike bull or antlerless elk in HDs 702, 704 and 705 (but not valid on the Custer National Forest during the general rifle season). Allowing spike bulls to be harvested increases opportunity for hunters and prevents accidental violations when spikes are mistaken for antlerless elk.

In HD 703 and the eastern three-quarters of 701, hunters can pursue either-sex elk with a general license, but hunters should be aware that elk are scarce in these districts, often highly transient or occurring in small pockets of habitat, and primarily found on private land. The estimated elk harvest in HD 703 for 2020 was 65 elk, compared 4,000 for the relatively abundant mule deer.

Harvest estimates suggest about 180 elk were harvested in HD 701, 650 in HD 700, and about 750 in the Custer Forest Elk Management Unit (HDs 702, 704, and 705). Hunters can expect elk to be distributed a bit differently this year due to drought.

The drought will undoubtedly impact deer hunting this fall, but biologists expect to see a bigger impact from the coming winter and hunters should expect to see even fewer deer next season (2022). Region 7 began 2021 with below-average mule deer numbers.

This year’s drought means animals are going into winter with little to no fat reserves, and winter is a season during which deer struggle to eat enough to meet their energy needs even in good years. If they can’t store enough fat during the summer, they can struggle to survive the winter.

Mule deer observed during spring survey flights were 28 percent below last year and 17 percent below the long-term average, a result of drought in the southern portion of the region that began last fall. The recruitment rate for mule deer fawns this spring was just below average at 55 fawns per 100 adults, and was generally poorer further south in the region.

 In response to drought and poor habitat conditions, biologists in southeast Montana reduced antlerless quotas for 2021 by 50 percent. Previously, these licenses had been selling out during about the third week of the season. This year, they are expected to sell out much sooner.

Mule deer numbers had been increasing since about 2012, a result of mild winters and good spring/summer moisture. The good news for hunters is that each good year for deer production and survival equals a solid year-class recruited into the population, so Region 7 currently has a good dispersion of age classes on the ground with a mix of young, middle-age and older animals. Buck-to-doe ratios remain good, averaging 41 bucks per 100 does in the region.

Whitetail numbers remain variable but are generally up, depending on the area of the region. Overall, their numbers are 12 percent above last year. Whitetails in core river bottom habitat are well above long-term averages. However, in upland and agriculture habitats, numbers vary from below average to well above.

Buck harvest was 28 percent above long-term average last fall. Fawn recruitment this spring was a little below average at 51 fawns per 100 adults.

Pronghorn populations have dropped considerably from last year across southeastern Montana.

Overall, the pronghorn population in this region is 39 percent lower than in 2020, and 20 percent below the 10-year average. Much of this decline is due to the severe drought, as well as overabundant grasshoppers in area that depleted vegetation.

While the decline occurred throughout the region, in general pronghorn numbers remain better in the southern third of the region (primarily HDs 704 and 705). During summer surveys, biologists observed more than five pronghorn per square mile in the very southeast corner of the state. That transitioned from more than two pronghorn per square mile in the central portion of HD 705, and from less than one to just over one pronghorn per square mile throughout most of HDs 700, 701 and 703.

The good news is that buck numbers are healthy going into this hunting season, with 59 bucks per 100 does across the region. Hunters can find better success in remoter areas with good public land opportunities.

FWP is offering fewer Region 7 either-sex and doe/fawn rifle licenses than in the last few years. A newer opportunity is the 799-30 doe/fawn license, which is valid only in HDs 704 and 705. It is a second opportunity license that is available only to those hunters who drew a 007-20 and/or 007-30 pronghorn license (which are valid in all of Region 7). The 799-30 license is available one per hunter. Sportsmen may hold up to three pronghorn licenses in a given year, only one of which may be an either-sex license.

During weather extremes, animals may often distribute differently compared to most years. Hunters should be prepared to have backup spots in case pronghorn have shifted away from their usual fall use areas; finding anywhere with green vegetation is a good place to focus. Given the hot and dry conditions, archery pronghorn hunters targeting water holes may have quite a few encounters; however, be aware that many reservoirs are very low or are completely dry, so hunters may have to search for ones with water remaining or focus on stock tanks.